Showing posts with label WHO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WHO. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The MERS Outbreak in Buraidah, Saudi Arabia, February - March 2016


Since late February, a Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak has been occurring in northcentral Saudi Arabia in Buraidah in the Al Qassim region. Through March 16, 2016, there have been 23 MERS cases reported from Buraidah by the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health (SAMOH), include 6 females and 17 males, ranging in age from 22 to 84 years. Six of the cases are healthcare workers. Based on reports by the SAMOH, 11 of these individuals have died. Only five individuals have been reported to have recovered.

Constructing a preliminary timeline of Buraidah outbreak

Details are only available from the World Health Organization (WHO) for 18 of these cases prior to March 10, 2016. (link, link)

At least five of the cases reported by WHO appear to be community-acquired infections which suggest that MERS may be wide-spread in the Buraidah community. These individuals include a 40 year-old male (WHO 1670) who experienced symptoms on February 22 and was hospitalized the same day. It is not clear how this individual became infected. At least four other community-acquired infections also occurred. The first is a 42-year-old male (WHO 1658) who had symptoms on February 26 and was hospitalized on March 4 and is reported to have contact with animals. A 67-year-old female (WHO 1668) developed symptoms on February 28 and was hospitalized two days later on March 1. Investigations of exposure to known risk factors for this case are continuing. A 68 year-old female (WHO 1655) experienced symptom onset on March 2 and was hospitalized on March 5. Investigations of exposure to known risk factors prior to symptom onset is currently ongoing for this individual as well. The fifth individual is a 50-year-old male (WHO 1684) who experienced symptom onset on March 1 and was hospitalized the same day. He is reported by the SAMOH to have died.

Thirteen of the remaining WHO-reported MERS cases, including three healthcare workers, appear to be associated with the nosocomial outbreak at a hospital in Buraidah. The first healthcare worker developed symptoms on February 28 and the second on March 3. The third healthcare worker developed symptoms on March 6. This indicates that the coronavirus was present in the hospital prior to February 28.

According to the WHO report, eight of the confirmed cases were being hospitalized or treated in the Buraidah hospital starting as early as February 4 (seven had comorbidities and were possibly being treated for these conditions) and continuing through the start of the hospital outbreak. Three of these hospitalized cases initially tested negative for MERS; one on February 20, and two on February 24. Later all three of these individuals tested positive on March 4, indicating that these cases may have been infected after February 20.

This suggests that the possible index case for the hospital outbreak is the 40-year-old male (WHO 1670) who was experiencing symptoms on February 22 and was hospitalized on same day. He died on March 4. The other four community-acquired cases discussed above were hospitalized between March 1 and March 4, too late to have infected the first health care worker and some of the other hospitalized cases.

Between March 11 and March 16, the SAMOH identified five additional MERS cases from Buraidah. The WHO has not yet reported the details of these cases, but all least two or three of these cases appear to be part of the nosocomial outbreak.

Discussion

Although the details are unclear, community-acquired MERS infections are occurring in Buraidah  along with a nosocomial outbreak that originated after February 20 in a local hospital. In the Buraidah outbreak almost half of all of the reported fatalities (5 out of 11) are under 35 years in age. This is a high percentage. Of the previously reported MERS fatalities from Saudi Arabia only about 10% are under the age of 35.

It is not clear if the nosocomial MERS outbreak in Buraidah has been contained.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Correlating the World Health Organization (WHO) Line List of MERS Case Numbers from the Republic of Korea (ROK)


The recent outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea (ROK) is the largest outbreak outside of the Arabian Peninsula since MERS was first reported in 2012. A total of 185 cases of MERS have been reported to date by the World Health Organization (WHO) from the ROK (see Annex 1). The media has reported that the outbreak in the ROK is over (link), however, WHO does not consider an infectious disease outbreak to be over until twice the maximum incubation period has passed interrupting the chain of human-to-human transmission. The maximum incubation period for MERS is believed to be14 days. The end of the outbreak will only be signaled 28 days after the last MERS-infected individual in the ROK tests negative sometime in the future.

Because of the size and nature of the MERS outbreak in the ROK, researchers will be analyzing the epidemiological data from the ROK outbreak in the future to assess what can be learned from this outbreak. Critical to such analysis is accurate, individual details of each case.

Below is a table correlating the WHO line list of MERS case numbers from the ROK (see Annex 1) with the line list of case numbers from the ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare (see Annex 2), and the line list of MERS disease events from ROK reported by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (link).

A link to a pdf file of this table and  a CSV table of this data are presented below. Hopefully this concordance table will be useful to current and future MERS researchers.







  
General Table Comments:

1. There are some discrepancies in patient ages between the WHO line list of cases and the ROK line list of cases.

2. ROK Ministry of Health case #10 is not included in the WHO line list from the ROK. This case was reported from China on May 30, 2015 (link) with symptom onset of May 21, 2015 (WHO MERS ordinal number: 1148). While this case is considered part of the 2015 Asia outbreak of MERS it is not included in the WHO line list of cases from the ROK.

3. WHO ordinal case numbers are not necessarily in the correct order for individual cases when WHO presents aggregate case counts in a Disease Outbreak News reports.

4. There appears to be some discrepancies between FAO MERS case data and WHO MERS case data.  

5. The correlation presented in the above table is the best informed concordance of case listings.

Details of Column Headings:

WHO Case Number: WHO Case Number for MERS cases from ROK

Ordinal Case Number, WHO: Ordinal MERS Case Number based on WHO Disease Outbreak News reports

ROK Case Number: ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare Case Number

WHO Age: Age reported by WHO

ROK Age: Age reported by ROK Ministry of Health

WHO Gender: Gender reported by WHO

ROK Gender: Gender reported by ROK Ministry of Health

Onset Date: Symptom onset date reported by WHO

FAOid: Disease event identifier from FAO for ROK MERS cases

Caseid: Unique case identifier number








Annex 2. MERS Case Details reported by ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare

ROK Case Number 1 to 145 (June 14, 2015)

ROK Case Number 146 to 150 (June 15, 2015)

ROK Case Number 151 to 154 (June 16, 2015)

ROK Case Number 155 to 162 (June 17, 2015)

ROK Case Number 163 to 165 (June 18, 2015)

ROK Case Number 166 (June 19, 2015)

ROK Case Number 167 to 169 (June 21, 2015)

ROK Case Number 170 to 172 (June 22, 2015)

ROK Case Number 173 to 175 (June 23, 2015)

ROK Case Number 76 to 179 (June 24, 2015)

ROK Case Number 180 (June 25, 2015)

ROK Case Number 181 (June 26, 2015)

ROK Case Number 182 (June 27, 2015)

ROK Case Number 183 (July 2, 2015)

ROK Case Number 184 (July 3, 2015)

ROK Case Number 185 (July 4, 2015)

ROK Case Number 186 (July 5, 2015)


 


Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Confusion surrounds the number of H5N1 cases in Egypt



The most recent, cumulative World Health Organization (WHO) table of human H5N1 cases was published on March 3, 2015.[1] This table notes a total of 88 human H5N1 cases in Egypt through March 3, 2015. As I noted previously [2] the tabulation of counts based on the line list of cases published in the monthly risk summaries only totals 82 cases for Egypt in 2015 based on onset dates in reports of 2015.

To understand the confusion in the Egyptian case counts in the WHO table, it is necessary to consider the 2014 totals provided by WHO. The current WHO cumulative table reports 46 cases of H5N1 in 2014 with 31 cases from Egypt.[1] However, individual enumeration of WHO-confirmed H5N1 cases based on line lists in the monthly risk assessments shows a total of 52 H5N1 cases in 2014 (based on onset dates), with 37 of these reported from Egypt.[3] The table below identifies the distribution of WHO-confirmed H5N1 from Egypt by each of the monthly summaries for 2014 through the most recent assessment posted on March 3.[4]



Further complicating the confusion is the Regional Office Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) of WHO. On March 21, 2015 EMRO published a table that only identifies 29 H5N1 cases from Egypt in 2014.[5] The EMRO data has a 8-case discrepancies with the line list of confirmed cases published by WHO.

In summary, Egypt experienced a total of 37 confirmed H5N1 in 2014 based on onset dates. In 2015, 82 WHO-confirmed cases with onsets dates before February 20 have occurred in Egypt. Since February 20, there have been at least 22 additional official cases from Egypt with onset dates on or after 20 February. Another 3 H5N1 cases have been also reported from Egypt but are not yet corroborated.

Until we get the numbers right for H5N1 in Egypt from 2014, we can’t correct the numbers for 2015. Based on the above discussion, through March 25, 2015 there have been 107 H5N1 cases in Egypt with symptom onset since January 1, 2015.  








Monday, December 1, 2014

How will we know when the number of Ebola infections starts to decline?



According to the World Health Organization (WHO), three West African countries continue to experience intense transmission of Ebola. More than 16,000 cases of Ebola have been reported from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in the past several months since the outbreak started earlier this year (link). There is some evidence that the rate of new Ebola infections in these countries is not growing as fast as previously estimated which is good news. The WHO situation report published on November 26, 2014 (link) states “Case incidence is stable in Guinea, stable or declining in Liberia, but may still be increasing in Sierra Leone”.

However, there is great uncertainty over the quality of the reporting data emanating from West Africa on this Ebola outbreak. Also, based on the fluctuating numbers of newly reported cases in each of these three countries, it is difficult to assess the increases or decreases in the incidence of cases in these three countries. Assuming that the case numbers reported in the WHO situation reports are representative the number of infections in each of these countries, the average number of new cases per day can be graphed on a timeline. Below, the average number of new cases per day is compared with the cumulative moving average of cases since the start of the outbreak within each of the three countries.

These graphs clearly show that the trajectory of the number of new cases in each country generally support the WHO statement. At this time, the number of new  daily cases  in Guinea appears to be declining towards the cumulative moving average. Recent new case counts for Liberia have fallen below the long term cumulative moving average. For Sierra Leone, the reported average number of Ebola cases is above the cumulative moving average,  This is a clear indication that rate of Ebola infections in Sierra Leone have not yet started to decline.

Eventually, declines in the number of new Ebola infections in these three countries will only be apparent when the daily average of newly reported Ebola cases drops below-and stays below-the cumulative moving average. At that time the cumulative moving average will begin to decline as well. Comparing the number of daily new cases in these countries in relation to the cumulative moving daily average will help identify when there is a downturn in the number of new Ebola infections in these countries. 






Graph Notes:

1. Data used to construct these graphs is derived from the country totals provided by WHO in the Ebola situation and data updates current through November 28, 2014 (link). The new daily cases counts includes all Ebola cases reported from the country including, confirmed, probable, and suspected cases.

2. The average number of new Ebola cases per days is computed as the total number of newly reported cases since the last report divided by the number of reporting days. The average number of new cases per day is recalculated after each WHO report.