Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2015

Correlating the World Health Organization (WHO) Line List of MERS Case Numbers from the Republic of Korea (ROK)


The recent outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea (ROK) is the largest outbreak outside of the Arabian Peninsula since MERS was first reported in 2012. A total of 185 cases of MERS have been reported to date by the World Health Organization (WHO) from the ROK (see Annex 1). The media has reported that the outbreak in the ROK is over (link), however, WHO does not consider an infectious disease outbreak to be over until twice the maximum incubation period has passed interrupting the chain of human-to-human transmission. The maximum incubation period for MERS is believed to be14 days. The end of the outbreak will only be signaled 28 days after the last MERS-infected individual in the ROK tests negative sometime in the future.

Because of the size and nature of the MERS outbreak in the ROK, researchers will be analyzing the epidemiological data from the ROK outbreak in the future to assess what can be learned from this outbreak. Critical to such analysis is accurate, individual details of each case.

Below is a table correlating the WHO line list of MERS case numbers from the ROK (see Annex 1) with the line list of case numbers from the ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare (see Annex 2), and the line list of MERS disease events from ROK reported by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (link).

A link to a pdf file of this table and  a CSV table of this data are presented below. Hopefully this concordance table will be useful to current and future MERS researchers.







  
General Table Comments:

1. There are some discrepancies in patient ages between the WHO line list of cases and the ROK line list of cases.

2. ROK Ministry of Health case #10 is not included in the WHO line list from the ROK. This case was reported from China on May 30, 2015 (link) with symptom onset of May 21, 2015 (WHO MERS ordinal number: 1148). While this case is considered part of the 2015 Asia outbreak of MERS it is not included in the WHO line list of cases from the ROK.

3. WHO ordinal case numbers are not necessarily in the correct order for individual cases when WHO presents aggregate case counts in a Disease Outbreak News reports.

4. There appears to be some discrepancies between FAO MERS case data and WHO MERS case data.  

5. The correlation presented in the above table is the best informed concordance of case listings.

Details of Column Headings:

WHO Case Number: WHO Case Number for MERS cases from ROK

Ordinal Case Number, WHO: Ordinal MERS Case Number based on WHO Disease Outbreak News reports

ROK Case Number: ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare Case Number

WHO Age: Age reported by WHO

ROK Age: Age reported by ROK Ministry of Health

WHO Gender: Gender reported by WHO

ROK Gender: Gender reported by ROK Ministry of Health

Onset Date: Symptom onset date reported by WHO

FAOid: Disease event identifier from FAO for ROK MERS cases

Caseid: Unique case identifier number








Annex 2. MERS Case Details reported by ROK Ministry of Health and Welfare

ROK Case Number 1 to 145 (June 14, 2015)

ROK Case Number 146 to 150 (June 15, 2015)

ROK Case Number 151 to 154 (June 16, 2015)

ROK Case Number 155 to 162 (June 17, 2015)

ROK Case Number 163 to 165 (June 18, 2015)

ROK Case Number 166 (June 19, 2015)

ROK Case Number 167 to 169 (June 21, 2015)

ROK Case Number 170 to 172 (June 22, 2015)

ROK Case Number 173 to 175 (June 23, 2015)

ROK Case Number 76 to 179 (June 24, 2015)

ROK Case Number 180 (June 25, 2015)

ROK Case Number 181 (June 26, 2015)

ROK Case Number 182 (June 27, 2015)

ROK Case Number 183 (July 2, 2015)

ROK Case Number 184 (July 3, 2015)

ROK Case Number 185 (July 4, 2015)

ROK Case Number 186 (July 5, 2015)


 


Saturday, June 6, 2015

Preliminary Timeline of the Initial MERS Outbreak in the Republic of Korea

The MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea began when a 68-year-old man returned from visiting countries on the Arabian Peninsula in early May. He was symptomatic after returning to Korea and visited several hospitals.  He infected a few health care workers before being diagnosed with MERS and hospitalized.  Since then at least 50 people have been infected.  Some of these cases represent third generation infection; hundreds of people are currently being monitored. This outbreak is far from over.

Below is a preliminary timeline of the first 35 cases reported by the Korea Ministry of Health.




The data and information used here have been derived from numerous publicly available sources including WHO, various ministries of health, internet bloggers, internet forums, and other media reports available online. For some individual cases, specific details are lacking or conflicting information is presented in online reports. However, the information and graphics presented here are based on data which is believed to be reasonably accurate and current through June 3, 2015.

Friday, March 13, 2015

Egypt leads the world in the number of human H5N1 cases



In late December 2014, Egypt surpassed Indonesia in the number of reported A(H5N1) cases.[1] As of March 3, 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed a worldwide cumulative total of 784 human H5N1 cases, about 37% or 292 of these cases have been reported from Egypt (Table 1). Eighty-two of those cases from Egypt occurred in the first two months of 2015.[2] In addition, media reports suggests that another four cases have occurred since late February in Egypt and may be included in future monthly updates by WHO.[3]
 

The recent WHO report from 3 March 2015 notes “ The number of laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in Egypt with onsets of illness in the months of December 2014, January and February 2015 are the highest numbers reported by any country in a single month.” To put these statistics in perspective, about 36% of all H5N1 cases reported from Egypt have occurred in the last 3 months. The graph below shows the distribution of WHO confirmed cases by ISO week number in Egypt since December 2014.


 Based on onset dates, since December 2014 there have been 105 H5N1 cases reported from Egypt. According to WHO at least 28 of these individuals have died. The fatality rate among this group is 27% to date, although only 17 of these cases have been reported in media reports to have recovered.

Besides the 82 cases from Egypt since the beginning of 2015, only one other case of H5N1 has been confirmed by WHO in 2015, a 37-year-old woman from Suzhou, Jiangsu Province in the People’s Republic of China. With 83 cases so far this year, the H5N1 case count for 2015 already exceeds the annual case count of H5N1 for the preceding seven years.[4]

While the spot light is on human H5N1 infections in Egypt, the single case from Suzhou, China is a reminder that the H5N1 influenza virus is endemic in many parts of the world and that human outbreaks of H5N1 in the size and the scope now occurring in Egypt could quickly develop elsewhere in the world.


Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Map: Countries with Confirmed Ebola Cases from the 2014 Outbreak



As of October 6, 2014, seven countries have reported cases of Ebola as noted below.  The Democratic Republic of Congo has reported at least 53 cases from a local Ebola outbreak (link)  not associated with the current outbreak that apparently originated in Guinea in December 2013 (link).  

Guinea (977 confirmed cases) link
Liberia (931 confirmed cases) link
Nigeria (19 confirmed cases) link
Senegal (1 imported infection) link
Sierra Leone (2179 confirmed cases) link
Spain (1 locally acquired infection) link
United State of America (1 imported infection) link


Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Is the Next Wave of MERS starting in Eastern Saudi Arabia?



The Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia has announced two new cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), both from the city of Al Jubail in eastern Saudi Arabia. The first is a 34 year-old male reported on August 29, 2014 and the second is a 60 year-old male reported on September 8, 2014. The older man is intensive care. Notably, both of these cases are health care workers which suggests that there is another hospital outbreak of MERS in Al Jubail.   Al Jubail is located about 30 miles north of Dammam where two other MERS cases have been recently reported. These 4 cases could indicate that MERS is again active in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

Links: