Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Ebola infections continue to grow in West Africa

The Ebola epidemic in the three West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone continues to grow. As depicted in the graph below,  there have been erratic increases in the number of new Ebola cases in these counties since week number 20 (starting May 11, 2014).

The next graph below, based on the average number of new Ebola cases per week, indicates that the longer term statistical trend in the number of cases is continued exponential increase. The variability in case data from these three countries for week numbers 37 and 38 suggests that local public health officials in these countries can no longer accurately track and count Ebola cases.  Without international support there is no reason to expect that the infection rate will decline any time soon in these countries.

Graph notes: The data used in this graph are derived from World Health Organization and are current through September 16, 2014.  Only cases from the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are used in this graph.

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