On January 24th, I posted a graph plotting the growth rate of H7N9 cases in China. Based on the trend (link), I estimated that between 30-40 cases of H7N9 would be reported in the coming weeks. Using current data for onset dates (through February 4, 2014), an updated plot indicates a total of 39 H7N9 cases for both Week 4 and Week 5. More than 30 H7N9 cases (without onset dates) have already been reported for Week 6. If the number of cases continues to increase at an exponential rate, more than 100 people a week will be reported as H7N9 cases by Week 7 or Week 8. If the rate continues at its current pace, China will be experiencing an H7N9 epidemic within the near future.
Current graph of H7N9 cases through Week 5.
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