About three week ago, I posted a graph that suggested the
first wave of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) infections in 2014 peaked
about April 20th and was starting to decline (Number ofCurrent MERS Infections on the Arabian Peninsula May Be Declining).
Since April 30 almost 200 additional MERS cases have been reported.
Extending the graph to include data through May 17, the additional data clearly
show that the number of MERS cases (based
on the plotting criteria) started to decline about April 20 and
has continue to decline since then. The
date associated with each individual case varies with the publicly available
information. Where possible, the onset date is used. If the onset date is not
provided, the date of hospitalization is used or the date of death. If the case
is asymptomatic, the date of confirmation is used if available, if not, the
date of the official report is used. If no other calendar information is available, the date of the report is used. Importantly,
the distribution of these additional cases by onset date, hospitalization or
death date, or date of report, did not appreciably alter the shape of the graph
or shift it closer in time. The plotted 5-day central moving average (incorporating
all of the additional cases) is almost coincidental with the moving average
plotted through April 30 as show on the graph below.
Since most MERS cases are being reported from Saudi Arabia,
the decline in cases is welcome news.
However, the number of exported MERS cases from Saudi Arabia to other
countries seems to be increasing and should of concern for public health
officials worldwide.
