Influenza A(H5N1) can still be considered a novel infectious
disease even though it has been infecting people since 1999. As of July, 2013, more than 600 people around the world have
been infected with H5N1.[1] Of these, more than half have died. If you are
infected, it is a deadly disease.
A review of H5N1 case descriptions reported by the World
Health Organization (WHO) almost always identifies the source of the infection
as sick or dying poultry. In countries where H5N1 is endemic, vaccination of
poultry is a strategy used to control the spread of H5N1.
In an article by El Masry and colleagues in Tropical
Animal Health and Production published earlier this month, the authors discusses the effectiveness of vaccinating
poultry in Egypt against H5N1. [2]
The key observation by these researchers:
Despite the enormous effort put into rural house-hold poultry AI vaccination by the Egyptian government, village CAFI [a measure of flock immunity] is unlikely to be maintained at the levels required to significantly reduce the virus load and restrict transmission. Reducing HPAI H5N1 viral load and transmission requires maintenance of high levels of flock immunity. This will require massive additional financial means, and it is questionable if it can be logistically feasible.
The authors conclude that current H5N1 poultry vaccination
strategies in Egypt will be unsuccessful in controlling the virus load and
transmission within local poultry flocks.
We can expected more human cases of H5N1 in Egypt from sick and dying
poultry.
[1] http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/Influenza_Summary_IRA_HA_interface_03July13.pdf
[2] Modelling influenza A H5N1 vaccination strategy
scenarios in the household poultry sector in Egypt. http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11250-013-0446-8.pdf
