Influenza A(H7N9) is a novel infectious bird flu strain that burst on the world's stage at the beginning of April 2013. Since then at least 132 individuals have been infected and more than 35 have died. [1]
In an article entitled Taiwan faces challenges on the emerging avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China [2], researchers from Taiwan raise concerns over this novel influenza virus because it is a low path avian influenza virus (LPAI) in birds. This means that it does not kill off its avian hosts and is more difficult to detect in domesticated poultry and wild birds. The researchers note that after the closing the live poultry markets in Shanghai on April 5, the number of human cases caused by A(H7N9) virus dramatically
decreased in that province. They speculate that A(H7N9) virus may spread silently in poultry in
China and eventually spread globally through the migration of wild birds. They include a graphic depicting the geographic relation of humans cases in eastern portion of the People's Republic of China with the East Asian–Australasian migratory bird flyway.
The researchers in Taiwan have a right to be concerned. The only confirmed case of influenza A(H7N9) outside the mainland of the People's Republic of China was a Taiwanese national who worked in Suzhou, Jiangsu, where he was infected before returning to Taiwan.
[1] http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/RiskAssessment_H7N9_07Jun13.pdf
[2] http://www.jfma-online.com/article/S0929-6646%2813%2900171-X/fulltext
Saturday, June 8, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
What is the actual count of MERS-CoV cases and the number of deaths?
With less than 60 MERS-CoV cases
scattered around the world why is it so difficult for national and
international public health agencies to report an accurate account of infected
individuals including the number who died.
The World Health Organization charged
with tracking health issues around the world reports that there have been 54 cases
of MERS-CoV infection and 30 deaths. [1]
The CDC-USA reports a total of 55 cases
and 30 deaths. [2]
A tabulation provided by the Virology
Down Under blog identifies a total count of 55 cases and 33 deaths. [3]
FluTrackers identifies 55 cases
but only 26 deaths in its list of cases. [4]
And through May 30, 2013, the ECDC reports
a total of 49 cases with 27 deaths. [5]
This confusion over the number of MERS-CoV
cases and how many deaths highlight the needs for one central, official, line
list of cases that is publicly available on the internet. Paramount in this case list is to distinguish
between confirmed cases, probable cases, and suspected cases. Ideally, this
line list would include cases that were previously reported as confirmed or
probable, and then later identified as negative cases. This would alleviate
much of the reporting and tabulation differences that occur when comparing case
counts from different agencies and organizations.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Confusing Information from Italy about the number of MERS-CoV Cases
Yesterday, the media from Italy reported that an additional
10 to 12 individuals were infected with the MERS-CoV, but the
individuals were asymptomatic. These individuals reportedly included doctors
and nurses. Today, a second round of testing on eight of these individuals
produced negative results [1]. Based on
the number of confirmed cases to date, MERS-CoV is a deadly disease. The presence
or absence of asymptomatic or mild cases of MERS-CoV is an important component in
understanding how this disease spreads. Hopefully, the confusion over the
number of infected individuals and the MERS-CoV testing results will be cleared up soon
by public health officials in Italy.
Monday, June 3, 2013
Map: MERS-CoV Clusters in Europe and North Africa, June 3, 2013
The announcement today of an additional 10-12 asymptomatic MERS cases in Florence, Italy, raises the specter of silent human-to-human transmission. The map depicts the locations of clusters of confirmed and suspected MERS-CoV cases in Europe and North Africa.
An Expanding Cluster of MERS-CoV Cases in Italy
As of yesterday, three confirmed cases of MERS-CoV were reported
in Italy.[1] Today, another 10+ asymptomatic cases have been reported by the
media in Florence.[2-4] It is difficult to draw a conclusion from these media
reports.
Are these individuals actually positive for the MERS-CoV
virus?
Is this a local coronavirus variant that is spreading from
the initial index case in Italy?
Does this indicate that MERS-CoV is actually a wide-spread coronavirus,
a coronavirus with less virulence than expected?
More questions than answers now until official results are
presented.
[2] http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/964227/coronavirus-dieci-casi-positivi-di-nuova-sars-in-italia/ h/t tetano
Sunday, June 2, 2013
Potential Animal Reservoirs of the Novel Coronavirus MERS-CoV on the Arabian Peninsula
The first human infections of a novel coronavirus were identified in late of 2012. The coronavirus was later named hCoV-EMC based on genetic analysis at the Erasmus Medical Center [1]. More recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has adopted the label MERS-CoV for hCoV-EMC [2].
As noted in a previous post, at least 50+ MERS cases have been reported
from eight countries; France, Jordan, Italy,
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and the United
Kingdom.
The nature of the transmission is uncertain, but some of these infections are occurring in hospital settings; several health care workers have been infected. Four of these clusters, one from France, one from Italy, one from Tunisia, and one from the United Kingdom, occurred outside of the Middle East region. The index cases in all four of these clusters had previously visited countries within the Arabian Peninsula. The index cases of other clusters, as well as other individual isolated cases, were all apparently infected in the geographic area of the Arabian Peninsula. These data suggest that the animal host for MERS-CoV is endemic on the Arabian Peninsula.
MERS-CoV is one of
six known coronaviruses that infect humans [3]. The most well-known of these six
is SARS-CoV. SARS-CoV infected more than 8000 people from
2002-2003. Although SARS-CoV was initial identified in palm civets, later
research indicated that the Chinese horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus sinicus)
was the most likely host organism with the civets acting as an intermediate
amplification host [4]. The Chinese
horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus sinicus) is one of approximately 77 bat
species included in a single genus of Rhinolophus in the family RHINOLOPHIDAE.
The Erasmus Medical Center researchers that initially
identified hCoV-EMC (MERS-CoV) in 2012 noted that this novel coronavirus was
most closely related to two coronaviruses found in vesper and pipistrelle bats
(family VESPERTILIONIDAE). The researchers indicate that the closest match of
hCoV-EMC is the coronavirus BtCoV-HKU5 from Japanese house bats (Pipistrellus
abramus) [5].
The authors comment that “it is tempting to speculate that
HCoV-EMC/2012 emerged from bats—either directly or via an intermediate animal
host, possibly Pipistrellus bats. This bat species is known to be
present in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries.” [6]
The
identification of the Chinese horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus sinicus) as a
host reservoir for SARS-CoV and the discovery by the Erasmus Medical Center
Team that MERS-CoV is related to coronaviruses found in the VESPERTILIONIDAE bat
family provides a basis for considering bats as the host organism for MERS-CoV in the Arabian Peninsula.
Because Saudi Arabia has reported the most MERS cases, and because it occupies a great percentage of the Arabian Peninsula, bat species in Saudi Arabia should be evaluated as potential hosts for this novel coronavirus. More than 30 species of bats have been identified in a 2003 report on the bats of Saudi Arabia by Abdulaziz Al-Agaili and Wikipedia [7]. A review of the geographic distribution of these species on the Arabian Peninsula, in comparison with bat species from Qatar, United Arab Emirates [8], and Jordan [9] where other MERS cases have been reported, suggests that four species from three families, HIPPOSIDERIDAE, RHINOLOPHIDAE, and VESPERTILIONIDAE, should be considered as possible MES-CoV reservoirs in the region.
Because Saudi Arabia has reported the most MERS cases, and because it occupies a great percentage of the Arabian Peninsula, bat species in Saudi Arabia should be evaluated as potential hosts for this novel coronavirus. More than 30 species of bats have been identified in a 2003 report on the bats of Saudi Arabia by Abdulaziz Al-Agaili and Wikipedia [7]. A review of the geographic distribution of these species on the Arabian Peninsula, in comparison with bat species from Qatar, United Arab Emirates [8], and Jordan [9] where other MERS cases have been reported, suggests that four species from three families, HIPPOSIDERIDAE, RHINOLOPHIDAE, and VESPERTILIONIDAE, should be considered as possible MES-CoV reservoirs in the region.
Four bat species, Asellia tridens, Otonycteris
hemprichii, Pipistrellus kuhlii, and Rhinolophus clivosus have
a sufficiently large geographic distribution on the Arabian Peninsula to
be reservoir species of MERS-CoV. All of these species are from the sub order of
Microchiroptera. These small bats are generally insectivorous but some
leaf-nose bats in this suborder are known to eat fruit [10]. Pipistrellus
arabicus and Pipistrellus ariel are not included in the potential
list of hosts because of their limited geographic distribution on the Arabian Peninsula.
Fruit eating bats, members of the sub order Megachiroptera, are known to be reservoir for diseases such as Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever. The only fruit bats that are sporadically reported from the region are Rousettus aegyptiacus and Eidolon helvu, but they are not found in the eastern portion of the peninsula where many of the MERS cases have been reported. While fruit eating bats could be a reservoir, the other four Microchiroptera species are more likely candidates. While a microbat species in the region may be the host reservoir, the possibility of intermediate hosts associated with date farming and consumption should not be discounted in the transmission of MERS-CoV.
Species Distribution Information
Asellia tridens
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/2154/0
Otonycteris hemprichii
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/15663/0
Pipistrellus kuhlii
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/17314/0
Rhinolophus clivosus
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/19531/0
References
[10] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microbat
Map: MERS-CoV Outbreak, June 2, 2013
More than 50 MERS-CoV cases have been reported from eight countries as of June 2, 2013. The index cases in the three European countries (France, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and Tunisia all contracted the virus when visiting countries on the Arabian Peninsula. The animal host for this coronavirus most likely originates on the Arabian Peninsula.
Saturday, June 1, 2013
Novel infectious diseases in the 21st Century
This blog will provide personal observations and speculations about current novel infectious diseases. When people contract an infectious disease for which they do not have any natural defense or immunity the disease is called a novel infectious disease. Generally these infections are zoonoses [1], diseases that are transmitted between animal sources and humans.
In the past decade, a number of novel infectious diseases
have erupted around the world including SARS, influenza A(H5N1) [bird flu], and the
2009 H1N1 pandemic virus. In the past 12-14 months, two new diseases have jumped
to humans from unknown animal sources.
Since April of 2012, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has claimed the lives of at least 30 people
and infected more than 20 others in eight different countries including France,
Italy, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates,
and the United Kingdom [2]. In the past 60-90 days, avian influenza A(H7N9) [also
known as bird flu] has infected more than 130 individuals in the People’s Republic
of China and Taiwan [3].
Every novel infectious disease has the potential to grow
into an epidemic and, from there, into a global pandemic. Every outbreak of a novel infectious disease needs
to be monitored very closely.
[2] WHO MERS-CoV
[3] WHO A(H7N9)
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